Respuesta hidrológica de una cuenca de meso escala frente a futuros escenarios de expansión forestal

Abstract

A global level more than half of the water generated through the process of runoff is used by man. In south-central Chile the watersheds have been subjected to intensive processes of land use changes, including expansion of forest plantations with exotic species. This study evaluates the hydrological effects of future scenarios for forest expansion in a basin of mesoscale (4.340 km2) using the SWAT model. The scenarios were constructed through logistic regression model forest development planning to the years 2018, 2028 and 2038. The results of the validation process show that the model has good capacity to represent the hydrology of the watershed under analysis. Simulations indicate a decreasing trend in flows especially in the dry season. For some scenarios, decreasing summer flows exceed 50% respect to the base period. This decreasing trend is consistent with those reported by other authors in basins of small and meso-scale.